"Building the world's most accurate stock market timing model!"

Welcome to the all-new CrystalBull.com, with interactive charts, more indicators, and updated indicator models!  (NOTE: We are being hosted on Google servers worldwide, and may experience a few timeouts. If you get a 'server error', please refresh the page.)

We tirelessly study complex historical data to locate patterns and relationships (cause -> effect) looking for indicators which lead the stock market. We use computerized modeling to study financial and demographic data and analyze the trends. Financial data and stock market timing models are updated continually. We realize that history does not always dictate the future, so action based on the timing models and leading indicators does carry some risk. The objective is to be correct more times than incorrect, to reduce the risk/reward ratio, and to outperform the stock market in general. One might think of stock market timing as being similar to card counting at a casino (except this is legal!). You will not win every bet, but there may be times when the odds are in your favor. The CrystalBull Stock Market Timing Model seeks to do just that: to find times when history tells us that the stock market may be ready to change directions. To that end, CrystalBull.com is attempting to build the world's most accurate stock market timing model. Some analysts think of stock market prices as a yo-yo on an escalator, where the escalator is the long term trend, as the yo-yo moves along a cyclical, shorter term path. The data are certainly more complex than that. What appears at first glance as an unpredictable mess can many times be deciphered through analysis. By breaking down the pricing into the long-term trend, intermediate trend, short-term trend, and daily noise, we attempt to isolate the trends to see what may be coming next. Obviously, computer and mathematical modeling is imperative here. Stock market prices seldom move instantaneously to their next target on the path; that is the definition of a trend. By spotting trends ahead of time, a person can take steps to participate in (or avoid) the next trend. Through our analysis, we have developed a proprietary trading algorithm, which historically has outperformed the broad market by a wide margin. Click here to see the Historical Performance of the CrystalBull.com Trading Indicator (Stock Market Timing Model). By definition, a buy-and-hold investor receives the market return. No more, no less. Interestingly, the pool of traders who do not follow the buy-and-hold strategy also, in aggregate, receives the market return. Remember, the market return is the average return of all investors combined. So, for every investor who beats the market by frequent trading, there is another trader who underperforms the market. Many professional investment banks and hedge funds take billions in profits from the market through trading strategies. That leaves the individual investor at a tremendous disadvantage, meaning most investors will underperform the market. Add in capital gains taxes, investment costs, research costs, etc, and it becomes very difficult for the individual investor to beat the market.

Think of Stock Market Timing as an enhanced version of buy-and-hold. We only want to hold when the trend is favorable, and we want to be out of the market when the trend is down. This is not a system for day traders. The model does not pick individual stocks, but encourages a broadly diversified holding, such as the S&P 500 (ETF: SPY) or a total stock market index. The time between trades is typically several weeks, but can range into years, too. We attempt to buy on weakness and sell into strength. Most investors do just the opposite; they buy when the market is strong (when everyone else is buying), and sell when the market is weak (when everyone else is selling). They buy high and sell low. The CrystalBull Stock Market Timing Model attempts to provide the investor with guidelines to "buy-low-sell-high". Again, this chart: Historical Performance of the CrystalBull.com Trading Indicator (Stock Market Timing Model) compares a Buy-And-Hold strategy with our Stock Market Timing Model. Dollar Cost Averaging uses the magic of arithmetic to add return to a dedicated, regular investment plan. Instead of purchasing a fixed number of shares in each period, dollar cost averaging purchases a fixed dollar amount each period. Thus, more shares are purchased when the stock price is low than when the price is high. The result is that the investor's average cost per share is usually less than the average share price over the time period. An enhanced version of dollar cost averaging would be to save the investment funds until periods which are identified by the Stock Market Timing Model as entry points (buy signals), times when the market is weaker and expected to recover. When studying the stock market timing charts, graphs, meters, or gauges, the green lines represent stock market buy signals, and the red lines represent stock market sell signals.


That said, let's get started. Please visit the Stock Market Timing Dashboard, then click on any gauge to go to a chart showing its leading / lagging indicator relationship to the stock market.