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Stock Market Timing Signals - CrystalBull
Stock Market Indicator Signals - CrystalBull
Total Return S&P 500 CrystalBull
YTD (Apr 17th) +1.44% +3.65%
1 yr. (2013) +32.17% +14.86%
1 cycle (2007-2013) +50.75% +749.70%
2 cycles (2000-2013) +62.2% +5372.9%
*hypothetical results based on current model
Click to see historical performance of
The CrystalBull Trading Indicator
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Historical Chart
The CrystalBull.com Trading Indicator

This is the short term trend indicator of the CrystalBull Stock Market Timing Model.  After analyzing all available market data, this is our best indicator for the current market direction, and used in the hypothetical results shown at the top right.  View Historical Chart.  Note: This is a contrarian indicator;  It sells (red) into strength, and buys (green) on weakness.

(Click any gauge to open a chart of its historical relationship to the stock market.)
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The CrystalBull.com Trend Indicator

This is the longer-term indicator of the CrystalBull Stock Market Timing Model, an illustration for investors who use a modified buy-and-hold strategy (those who wish to trade less frequently, typically every 1-3 years).  View Historical Chart.  Note: This is a momentum indicator;  It exits (red) on weakness, and enters (green) on strength.

(Click any gauge to open a chart of its historical relationship to the stock market.)
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NOTE:   Click on any gauge to open a chart of its historical correlation to the stock market, and its use as a possible leading indicator of current stock market trends.
Mouse over to see a short description of the economic indicator's use in timing the market.

The CrystalBull Trading Indicator

 - In our opinion, this is our best stock market timing indicator.  After studying current economic data, this is our best estimate for current market direction.  The CrystalBull Trading Indicator has been quite accurate in finding overbought or oversold conditions, pivot or reversal points.  Click the gauge to see its use in timing the market.

The CrystalBull Trend Indicator

 is our best indicator for the longer term stock market trend, and is updated monthly.  This algorithm looks for market tops and bottoms to be established, so may lag the exact market reversal points by a short period.  This market timing model is for long-term investors, who seek to avoid secular bear markets.  Click the gauge to see our current market trend chart.

The CrystalBull Calendar Timing Indicator

 is our more sophisticated version of the old "Sell in May and go away!" adage.  This model considers seasonal tax and retirement account payments, along with the US presidential election cycle in structuring a stock market strategy.  This market timing model has been optimized using backtesting of time periods going back decades.  We do not place great trust in this model in timing the market going forward.

The CrystalBull Put-Call Ratio Startegies Indicator

 seeks to find overbought and oversold conditions based on trader sentiment.  A high Put-Call ratio indicates a bearish mood among traders (which is a bullish indicator), and vice versa.  Thus, this is a "contrarian" market timing indicator, which is a requirement of the "buy low - sell high" objective.

The CrystalBull Volatility Indicator

 is another contrarian market indicator, measuring investor sentiment.  A high volatility index (VIX) signals higher premiums for stock options, which usually occurs after a market selloff.  This timing method seeks out unsustainable changes in option premiums, as a stock market strategy.

The Relative Strength Index

 is an older, rather simplistic method of determining rapid market movements.  This algorithm measures stock price changes over the last 14 trading days, and determines a pattern.  This market timing system does find many unsustainable (reversal) points, but misses some major moves.  Thus, its accuracy has diminished in recent years.

The MACD Technical Indicator

 MACD (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence) measures recent price trends, and attempts to time the market by projecting current trends.  This market timing method may miss major moves, but may be suited for long-term investors who seek to avoid secular bear markets.  Click the gauge to see our current MACD chart.

Real GDP

  is the primary, most important measurement of the US economy  However, since the GDP data are released well after the sampling periods, and revised for months in the future, Real GDP is difficult to use in a stock market strategy.  It is a coincident indicator, at best, and not a stock market investment alert.  Click this meter to view Real GDP and the stock market.

Personal Income

 is a widely-followed data set for market timers.  Rising Personal Incomes yield more consumer spending, as well as more cash inflows into the stock market.  Because these data releases lag their sampling periods, and are revised for many months, they are difficult to use to time the stock market.

New Jobs

 data releases are highly-anticipated, and tend to move the stock market greatly.  Market timers use this data to judge general strength and weakness of the US economy, to predict business conditions going forward.  New Job creation stalls during recessions, and can be a stock market indicator.  Thus, this may be a coincidental data series.  But many investors use the New Jobs number as a stock market signal.

Job Openings

 may be a leading indicator to New Jobs data.  Job Openings stall before recessions, and may be a leading stock market indicator.  Click the gauge to compare Job Openings vs. the S&P 500.

Hourly & Weekly Earnings

 measures the strength and weakness of the US economy, as well as inflationary wage pressure.  Personal Income data is composited across the entire population, while Hourly and Weekly Earnings measure just the income of employees.  This is an important distinction, and both are needed to judge the economy and stock market potential.

Unemployment

 is the crucial measurement of the US economy.  Economic growth requires high employment levels, and the stock market rises and falls based on economic growth.  Thus some market timers use the Unemployment release as a buy signal or sell signal.  Note the relationship between Unemployment, recessions, and the market on this Unemployment effects on the stock market chart.

Consumer Sentiment

 is considered by many to predict the near term strength in retail and consumer goods stocks.  A trading system which buys stocks during periods of high consumer sentiment levels, and sells stocks when levels are lower is considered.  Consumer Sentiment does react to stock market conditions, however, so at times, this is a lagging indicator.

Retail Sales / Durable Goods

 is a data set closely followed by many stock traders, and can move the market quickly on release dates.  However, as these data measure sales conditions in the past, this may be a lagging indicator for market timers.  It is still an interesting study.

Business Inventories & Sales

 are important measurements of current retail economic trends.  Retail businesses usually attempt to keep inventories lower, to save costs.  Rising inventories usually signal that sales have come in lower than expected, which is a bearish sign, and may be a leading indicator of a downward trend in retail stocks.

Fed Funds - Prime Rate

 - Interest rates are a key indicator of the current state of the economy.  The Federal Funds Rate and Prime Rate are base lines for interest rates borrowers must pay to expand their businesses.  High rates slow borrowing and expansion, and vice versa.

3 Month CD Rate

 is a close proxy for current money market rates, which determines the short term income an investor receives while his or her investable funds are not invested in the market.  Higher, safe returns are competition for investable dollars, and must be considered in predicting cash flows into or out of the market.  Low rates can signal excess cash on the sidelines, and spur stock market investments.

US Treasuries

 - Treasury Notes and Bonds are safe, competitive investments vis-a-vis the stock market.  A comparison of Treasury Rates versus the inverse of the Price-to-Earnings ratio is a popular market timing method for predicting the forthcoming trend.  High Treasury rates are bearish, and vice versa.  Click the gauge to compare US Treasuries to the S&P 500.

The Yield Curve

 here is defined as the difference between the 30 Year Treasury Bond and 3 Month Treasury Bill rates.  A negative (inverted) Yield Curve (where long term rates are higher than short term rates) shows an economic instability where investors fear recessionary times ahead.  Yield Curve studies have been effective in stock market timing systems.  Click the gauge to see the correlation between the Yield Curve and recessions/a>.

The TED Spread

  (Tbill EuroDollar Spread) is the difference between the three-month LIBOR rate and the three-month T-bill interest rate.  A high TED Spread indicates higher perceived risk in lending, as interbank rates rise against risk-free treasury rates, and is generally a bearish signal, a leading indicator, in stock market timing studies.  Click the gauge to view the TED Spread correlation to the stock market.

Mortgage Rates

  are obvious candidates for study, as the housing market accounts for roughly 5% of GDP.  Rates typically respond to market conditions, however, so are usually a lagging stock market indicator. Recent manipulation by the Federal Reserve has distorted the study for decades to come.

Money Supply

 - (Monetary Base, M0, M1, M2, M3) changes by the Federal Reserve are one of the most important causes of economic trend reversals.  Many argue that all booms, busts, bubbles, and crashes are caused by Federal Reserve Money Supply manipulation vis-a-vis the free market.  The stock market is dependent on economic trends, so Monetary Supply is an important parameter in stock market systems.  Click to correlate Money Supply to the stock market.

Real PCE

  (Personal Consumption Expenditures) measures consumer spending in real, inflation-adjusted dollars, so is valuable in GDP studies, and retail and consumer goods stock analysis.  High PCE can also indicate higher demand-push inflationary times ahead, so can be a leading input.

Expected Inflation

  measures the 10 year treasury rate vs. TIPS (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities).  Since both trade on the open market, this is a good measurement of inflation rates investors are anticipating going forward.  Lower Expected Inflation generally indicates bearish sentiment.

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

  measures inflation at the consumer level.  Inflation is a distortion in price measurements over time, and must be accounted for in stock market and economic studies, and stock timing.

Producer Price Index (PPI)

  measures inflation at the manufacturer level, and is driven primarily by commodity, material, transportation, and wage prices.  Rising manufacturing costs can cut into corporate profits, and reduce consumer spending in real terms, so is important to measure in investment studies.

Spot Oil Price

  is an important component of both consumer and producer costs, and can be a leading indictor in measurements of inflation.  Rising energy costs act like a tax on consumers, and can lead to reduced sales, spending, and economic growth.  Oil Prices can be a leading indicator of the stock market.  Click to compare Oil Prices to the stock market.

Capacity Utilization

  measures the percentage of current manufacturing output versus output at full capacity.  As Capacity Utilization approaches 100, manufacturers will need to expand facilities, and may face additional costs and/or inflationary pressures.   A low Capacity Utilization signifies slow growth or recessionary times.  Click this meter to view Capacity Utilization history.

Industrial Production

  measures output from the US manufacturing base.  High Production signifies a strong, vibrant economy, and can stimulate a bullish stock market.

Productivity

  measures the efficiency (output vs. labor costs) of manufacturing output in the US.  High Productivity means manufacturers are getting more output from their workers, and is a bullish signal for the manufacturing sector.  It can also result from recent layoffs, so care is needed in its use.

Unit Labor Costs

  highlight inflationary wage pressures at the manufacturer level, per unit of output.  Higher Labor Costs can lead to lower corporate profits, which can be bearish to manufacturing stocks.  Click to view the recent history in our Unit Labor Costs chart.

US Home Sales

  is a valuable data set to follow in determining the general strength or weakness of the US economy.  Rising sales generally indicate consumer confidence and disposable income, and can signify a bull market for stocks.

US Home Prices

  generally follow rising wages and economic growth, and indicate economic strength.  Since Housing represents a rather large portion of gross domestic product, it is an important data set in investment strategies.

Housing Starts

  measure construction starts for new houses, and is an important indicator for home manufacturers, as well as other housing-related companies.  Housing makes up a considerable portion of US GDP.
NOTE:   Click on any indicator gauge to open a chart of its historical correlation to the stock market.
Mouse over to see a short description of the economic indicator's use in timing the market.
 TECHNICALS
 PERSONAL INCOME
 SENTIMENT
 SALES, INVENTORIES
 INTEREST RATES
 MONEY SUPPLY
 INFLATION
 PRODUCTIVITY
 HOUSING

Computerized algorithms for Stock Market Timing, Investment Strategies, Technical Analysis, Indicators and Trading System:


The CrystalBull.com Stock Market Timing Model analyzes the following data and their historical relationships to the stock market, in an effort to beat the market. Data that has demonstrated a tendency to be a leading indicator of the stock market is selected for use in our Timing Model. Not all data are leading indicators, but are provided for your review and analysis.



Data still to come:

Technical Analysis Methods:

The Conference Board will not grant permission to provide graphical analysis of their Consumer Confidence data or Leading Economic Indicator (LEI). The National Association of Realtors (NAR) will not grant permission to provide graphical analysis of their Existing Home Sales or prices.

This is the only true dashboard on the US economy for , helping you to try to beat the market returns, using historical buy signals and sell signals, strategies, indicators, models, trends via newsletter, software, service.
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