"Building the world's most accurate stock market timing model!"
Everyone else is just guessing.
This chart shows the TED Spread (difference between LIBOR (London Interbank Offered Rate) and 3 Month Treasury), in relation to the S&P 500. The LIBOR is Europe's equivalent to the United States' Federal Funds Rate. A rising TED spread is a bearish indicator, as it is evidence that liquidity is being withdrawn from the financial markets.

  = recessions