( HINT: Click-and-drag left-to-right on a chart to zoom in to a specific date range. Double-click on a chart to zoom back out. )
The CrystalBull Macroeconomic Stock Market Indicator Chart, For Longer-Term Market TimingThis chart shows the proprietary CrystalBull Macroeconomic Indicator in relation to the S&P 500, and is updated monthly. In our opinion, this is our best indicator for the longer term stock market trend. This algorithm looks for decaying macroeconomic strength, to warn investors of possible stock market weakness ahead. This market timing model is for long-term investors who seek to avoid secular bear markets.
From Dec. 31, 1969 through Dec. 31, 2021, following the CrystalBull Macro Indicator would have, hypothetically, produced a Total Return 7 times that of a Buy-and-Hold strategy (153288.21% vs. 22657.96%), with an average compound annual total return of 15.15% APR (The compound annual growth rate of the S&P 500 during this period was just 11.0% APR). The Indicator had 15 round turn trades over 52.0 years, and was in the market (exposed to market risk) 73.7% of the time.
HOW TO USE: The gold line in the bottom chart represents the CrystalBull Macro Indicator. It is calculated at the end of each month, based on the currently available economic data. Values above zero indicate an expected positive stock market trend going forward, and values below zero indicate a possible negative trend going forward. Click the "log/lin" link at the top-left of the S&P500 chart to see the chart at logarithmic scale. A straight line, in a log scale chart represents consistent exponential growth. Isn't that beautiful? That's exactly what we hope to find. This backtested model captured most of the stock market gains, but avoided the bear markets. Thus, its exponential growth rate is much higher than the buy and hold returns.