This chart shows the backtested readings of the current CrystalBull Matador™ model, along with the hypothetical returns that would have been obtained had this model been followed during this time period. The CrystalBull Matador™ uses a proprietary model to try to determine strength and weakness in the market, and to identify entry and exit points. Our hope is that following this indicator may reduce the "buy-high-sell-low" tendencies of the typical investor.
While the indicator may look like noise, if you zoom in (click-and-drag left-to-right across the data range you want to see), it will make more sense. It is an active indicator which can change daily, and this chart has 23+ years of data.
This is a beautiful chart! It extends the exuberant years of the late 1990's all the way through the 23 years of its history. It had a few losses, but they were quickly recovered. This is exactly what one should be looking for in a stock market timing model, and it approaches the theoretically-perfect long-only timing model for stock trading. The consistency of performance over this period is reassuring, but no model is perfect.
From Dec. 31, 1996 through Mar. 25, 2020, following the CrystalBull Matador™ would have, hypothetically, produced a Total Return 446 times that of a Buy-and-Hold strategy (181551% vs. 407%), with an average compound annual total return of 38% APR (The compound annual growth rate of the S&P 500 during this period was just 7.23% APR). The Matador™ had 304 round turn trades (averaging a little more than one per month), and was in the market (exposed to market risk) a bit more than half the time (58.5%). Click here to see the current readings of the CrystalBull Matador™
HOW TO USE: The yellow line in the center chart represents the CrystalBull Matador™. It is displayed in a standard technical analysis format, where a reading above +50 (red line) represents a possible negative trend reversal (market appears overbought, and may trend downward going forward), and a reading below -50 (green line) represents a possible favorable trend reversal (market appears oversold, and may trend higher going forward). The official readings are calculated after all the closing data are in for each day. Trades are done at the market open the following day. The model assumes that the market open prices match the previous days' closing prices. The Indicator chart draws a line from data point to data point. Where that line crosses the green or red line is not relevant; Monitor only the data points along the line.
( HINT: Click-and-drag left-to-right on a chart to zoom in to a specific date range. Double-click on a chart to zoom back out. )
Click here to see this chart in logarithmic format.