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( HINT:  Click-and-drag left-to-right on a chart to zoom in to a specific date range.  Double-click on a chart to zoom back out. )

The CrystalBull Macroeconomic Stock Market Indicator Chart, For Longer-Term Market Timing

This chart shows the proprietary CrystalBull Macroeconomic Indicator in relation to the S&P 500, and is updated monthly.  In our opinion, this is our best indicator for the longer term stock market trend.  This algorithm looks for decaying macroeconomic strength, to warn investors of possible stock market weakness ahead.  This market timing model is for long-term investors who seek to avoid secular bear markets.

From Dec. 31, 1969 through Sep. 30, 2026, following the CrystalBull Macro Indicator would have, hypothetically, produced a Total Return 6 times that of a Buy-and-Hold strategy (246869.2% vs. 38887.61%), with an average compound annual total return of 14.76% APR   (The compound annual growth rate of the S&P 500 during this period was just 11.09% APR).  The Indicator had 17 round turn trades over 56.7 years, and was in the market (exposed to market risk) 74.6% of the time.

We should not expect similar returns going forward, out of sample. This is not a get-rich-quick scheme. We hope to capture most of the gains of a buy-and-hold strategy while limiting the damage caused by account drawdowns.

HOW TO USE:  The gold line in the bottom chart represents the CrystalBull Macro Indicator.  It is calculated at the end of each month, based on the currently available economic data.  Values above zero indicate an expected positive stock market trend going forward, and values below zero indicate a possible negative trend going forward.  Click the "log/lin" link at the top-left of the S&P500 chart to see the chart at logarithmic scale. A straight line, in a log scale chart represents consistent exponential growth.  Isn't that beautiful?  That's exactly what we hope to find.  This backtested model captured most of the stock market gains, but avoided the bear markets.   Thus, its exponential growth rate is much higher than the buy and hold returns.

Frequently asked questions

What is the CrystalBull Macroeconomic Indicator?

It is CrystalBull’s proprietary monthly model of macroeconomic strength versus the stock market. CrystalBull calls it its best longer-term indicator and aims it at investors seeking to avoid secular bear markets when macro conditions decay.

How do you use the zero line?

Values above zero indicate an expected positive stock-market trend going forward; values below zero indicate a possible negative trend. The reading is calculated once per month from available economic data—not as a live intraday gauge.

How does it differ from the CrystalBull Trend Indicator?

Macro focuses on decaying macroeconomic strength as a warning of possible market weakness. The Trend Indicator is price-based, looks for established tops and bottoms, and may lag exact reversal points. Both are monthly tools for longer-term investors.

How often is it updated?

Monthly, at the end of each month, based on currently available economic releases.

What are the limitations?

It is proprietary and slow by design. Backtested results on the page are hypothetical under the current model, with CrystalBull stating similar future returns should not be expected. Monthly lag and data revisions mean it will not catch short-term swings the way Matador does.